The rate of infection in Epping Forest grew rapidly over the duration and in the weeks following the Government's Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

For three days a week in August, people could buy a half price meal at outlets that signed up to the scheme and save up to £10 per person.

Diners in Epping Forest bought more than 221,000 discounted meals at 126 participating business through the month-long scheme, new data from HM Revenue and Customs shows.

It meant diners saved £6.51 per meal on average and businesses in the area claimed back £1.4 million from the Government through the scheme at an average of £11,400 per outlet.

Researchers at the University of Warwick have suggested the scheme may have contributed to between 8 per cent and 17 per cent of newly detected Covid-19 clusters across the UK – a claim denied by the Treasury.

Between July 1 – August 1, before the scheme was introduced, there were 15 new coronavirus infections recorded in Epping Forest. 

Between August 1 – September 1 that figure grew to 67. Between September 1 – October 1 there were 867 new infections.

Other factors may have contributed, such as colder weather leading to more people gathering indoors rather than safely in parks and public spaces.

Dr Thiemo Fetzer, who led the research, said: "‘Eat Out to Help Out’ may in the end have been a false economy, one that subsidised the spread of the pandemic into autumn and contributed to the start of the second wave."

And while the Government has not announced when bars and restaurants will open again following the third national lockdown, some experts have warned they should stay shut until May to avoid another "bump" in transmission.

The Treasury spokesman said its analysis of the HMRC figures confirms take-up of the Eat Out to Help scheme "does not correlate with incidence of Covid regionally – and indeed where it does the relationship is negative."
However, this analysis has not been published by the department.